Oil,Copper, Crypto & the UK Opportunity - Insights from Clem Chambers

In this episode I'm joined by Clem Chambers to unpack a rapidly changing global landscape. With Iran strikes shaking markets, oil volatility rising and crypto still under pressure, Clem explains why long term investors should stay calm - and where he sees real opportunities emerging.

Clem discusses why he sold his gold and silver after their big run, why copper is the next major move, and how AI is creating a global energy bottleneck that could push oil dramatically higher. He also breaks down why defence stocks, uranium and strategic metals are back in focus.

One of the most interesting dynamics is the surge of US companies buying undervalued UK firms - including Honeywell’s move on Johnson Matthey. Clem explains how currency flows and a weakening US dollar are driving global investors into cheaper markets.

A wide ranging, energetic conversation full of practical insights for beginners and seasoned investors alike.

TRANSCRIPT FOLLOWS AFTER THIS BRIEF MESSAGE

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EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Phil Muscatello: G' day and Welcome back to Shares for Beginners. I'm Clem Chambers. Today we're talking about a world that's suddenly become a lot more interesting. Iran strikes, oil disruption, commodity shifting and crypto still under, um, pressure. I'm, um, delighted to be welcoming Clem Chambers back to the microphone. He joins us. Help sort through the mess he calls the market without fear or favor. Bitcoin's top commodity cycles, geopolitical risks. And in this episode, we'll be covering oil, copper, gold, crypto, I hope. I've sort of put this all on Clem before consulting with him, but we'll see what we can do and what we can cover and why UK stocks look interesting to global buyers right now. Hello, Clem, mate, how are you?

Clem Chambers: Uh, I'm great, Phil. I got kicked right in the rear end today in the markets, as you can imagine. But I'm going to have a good day tomorrow because America bounced like a rubber ball after the UK close. And, you know, this is what they call fast markets. And you know, you can do one of two things. You can try to make a killing or you can just forget about it, come back in a few weeks time to see how it all panned out. And I should really do that, but it's too much. It's my game, this. So this is kind of showtime.

Phil Muscatello:: It's the price of admission, isn't it?

Clem Chambers: Well, it's what you come for, or what a lot of people come for. I mean, markets are really one of those secret things that good countries have because they basically make economies efficient and well funded and, you know, at the end of the day, it's all about, you know, conflict is not about anything but logistics and efficiency and capital and, you know, the power of the number of people multiplied by gdp. So, you know, markets are really, really crucial and you won't find many rubbish companies with decent markets.

Phil Muscatello:Okay, so what did happen overnight at 6am here in Australia? I don't know what time it is wherever you are in the world, but I believe it's the 3rd of March just to timestamp when we're recording because, you know, events will be moving fast in. This is not the fourth for you, it's the fourth for me, but third for you. I'm just trying to think in your time zone. Okay, so, yeah, what happened in markets overnight? What was the disruption?

Clem Chambers: Well, what is going on now? And there's still an hour to go as we talk, and before I put my foot in it, because these are fast markets, which means that they're fast. And when I said the market bounce, it could have gone back down again in half an hour. But anyway, I'm looking at it right now. And basically, for example, the market was down, you know, about 1400 points or something, 27, 800 on the Dow and at the low, and it's now 48, 600. And it's basically came down at the open really badly and so did pretty much everybody. And everything from bitcoin to the UK market to gold, everything came down in a lump. Well, the UK market closed and the American market has gone up a lot, so it's now only down less than 1% in the U.S. and so I don't actually care, I really don't care. But in the morning it will bounce a lot. So, you know, trading, the noise and this is noise. Look, I don't have a satellite sat over Tehran. I just don't. If I did, I could go, oh, look at that. Oh, oh, buy. Oh, no, that's not a good sale. But I can't do that. So I have to take a long view and. And your viewers have to take a long view and the long view is really, I don't care, and come back and it'll all be forgotten. And, you know, I always say this and it's. It's a kind of. It's not meant to be cruel, but it'll sound a bit cruel. Imagine a very large country, any country you like, Suddenly, overnight there'd been an earthquake and it sunk. It just gone. It's completely gone. Italy gone, or Japan gone, or, I don't know, half South America gone. What would the market do? It would go down 15%. Yeah, it wouldn't go down much more than that. A whole continent, the whole of South America went underwater. It'd probably go down no more than 25%. So with that in mind, with that model, you go, well, there's this terrible, terrible thing going on in the Middle East. How much is that worth to a global market? You know, it's not big and you can actually, if you really wanted to study it, you can go and pull the equivalent of the Dow during the Second World War. It's quite difficult to see that it was actually happening. If you just put the chart up and you looked at it and you went, okay, what's going on here, you wouldn't go, oh, It's World War II. You go, well, oh, they had a little bit of a correction there, didn't they? And, oh, well, it's gone back up again. Let's see. Oh, it's almost not there. It's almost not there. And the corollary of that is like, you know, Germany. You can just see pictures of Germany flattened in 1945. Absolutely flattened. Well, in 1960, they were scaring everybody to death by being the rising economic power. Fifteen years, not even. Not even a generation.

00:05:00

Clem Chambers: So a country completely flattened, losing, you know, untold millions of lives, and yet within 20 years, you know, 20 years later, 1965, 30 years later, a little bit more than a generation, 1975, 1985, 40 years later, it's a superpower. So one has to get these things into perspective. Now, it's not the words that are important here. It's not the sentiment that's important. It's not the right and wrong of it. It's the fact of the numbers. And, you know, that's really what markets are all about. They have no fear, they have no remorse, they do not stop and they don't care about you. They are what they are. So it's really a test. It's a test of character, it's a test of logic, and it's really not a lot more than that. So, you know, people take the angle that they shouldn't care. They just buy a tracker and they just tip money into it and leave it alone. And that's a really good way to go for somebody that wants to invest sensibly. You know, find a tracker, you know, get clever, maybe have three trackers, have an American tracker, have a European tracker, have an Australian tracker, have Japanese tracker, maybe, and just tip money what you can afford, you know, every. Every month into that brokerage account and buy those ETFs, and, you know, you'll wake up if you start doing it when you're 30, well, you'll wake up at retirement age and you'll be wealthy. So, you know, I think that's an important lesson. Another one, which is. Which is actually stolen from a joke. Somebody was saying, well, if I put a pound in a pot ever since the British pound came out in 1982, I would now end up with whatever is £14,000. But if I, uh. This was a few years ago when the FTSE hadn't gone up at all, really, from 2000 to 2022. And he said, well, if I put it in the stock market, I wouldn't, uh, have anything, you know, and there was an element of truth in that. In as much as if you save consistently, you will end up with a big pile of money at the end of it. And if you then apply it to something which has growth, it could be a pension, it could be bonds, it could be stocks, depending on how much effort and time and study you want to do, you know, you will get really great returns over the long time, over, you know, 20, 30 years, massive returns. So that's the way to go. So people that are going today, oh, ah, uh, ah, uh, ah, uh. Is it going up? Is it going down? Oh, what should I buy? What should I sell? Oh, no. Should I run away? Forget it, forget it. You know, unless you are a specialist, unless this is your game like it is mine, unless it's you and really enjoy it, which I do, unless you're quite good at it, which you're probably not. Yeah. Um, then leave it alone. Just forget it. It will pass like the previous problems that we've been through. And, you know, that is a good place to start. And you can build, you know, clever things on top of that if you wish, firm foundation, don't care. Buy ETFs, just keep doing it. And then you can build up. Oh, I'm going to take a little snap, a little bit off my etf. I'm going to buy some really great stock and, you know, you can get cleverer and stretch out for better returns once you've got the basics right.

Clem Chambers: Once you've got the basics right and once you've done it, uh, you know, enough what, what to research and what reasons to go for.

Clem Chambers: But watch your channel. Not that good stuff.

Clem Chambers: That's right. So, Clem, last time we spoke, you were talking about the world being on a war footing and that gold and silver were the investments that you were in. What's changed since then?

Clem Chambers: Well, I mean, gold and silver went through the roof. When things do that, I get out. So I got out of silver, I got out most of my gold and, you know, it's come down a fairly large amount. Predicting silver, you know, it's jiggling around because it's kind of in a post bubble phase and it always does that. And now this is cropped up. So gold went on a run, now it's come off, back down again. But, you know, there's an old proverb which says trees don't grow to the skies, which means that, uh, it's only so far. These things can go up because they Cut before they can't go up anymore. And when they do that, I don't go, oh, it's going to go further. Yeah, it's going to double, triple, quadruple. I'm going to get in a queue to buy silver down the high street. I just go, oh, you want to buy my silver, do you? Yeah, here it is. Yeah, have it. It's yours. Take it. Enjoy. Yeah. So, you know, the trick is, and most people just can't get their head around it, and most people watching the show will go, can't be that easy, or that's not true, or whatever. Or they go, yes, yes, but why doesn't everybody do it? And that is, you buy when something's cheap and then you sell it when it isn't cheap. Now, I used to sell it when it isn't cheap. These days, I sell it when it starts to get a bit expensive. Yeah. Now, if something was two, six months ago and it's now five, chances are, uh, it's now expensive. You don't need to calculate that much. So you can say it could go to 10. Don't care. Good boy. And there's another bus coming. Yeah. So another bus coming. In this case, it's copper. So I sold out all my silver because it went mental. And I always sell anything that goes mental, I get out of it.

00:10:00

Clem Chambers: I mean, I was telling my viewers on YouTube about a little crazy stock in the UK. Uh, I just said, oh, you want to look at this one? I didn't say buy. I just said, well, look at that one. It was seven. And then about a week later it was 20, and I sold. And I said, I've got to tell you, I sold. I didn't tell you to buy, but I have sold. I always tell you when I sell. Next day it went to 25. This morning hit 30, and then a little bit later it hit 20 again. It's like, you know, I was an idiot the next day. I was a complete idiot the day before. Four hours later, I was a genius. So, you know, I made a fantastic profit out of that share, which is a fantastic share. Great reasons to have been long in it. Yeah. And. But it did what I thought it would do in two years, in two weeks. So you go, you know, thank you. Another bus coming. And there'll be another bus, and there'll be another bus. I mean, I bought General Dynamics today, and I would have bought Lockheed Martin. The blooming things are down today. I mean, so that feels cheap to me. So I would buy something like that. Now, if it went mental in a week's time, I'd sell it. I just go, I've got my return. I don't need. I'm not married to Lockheed Martin. I'm not a pilot. I'm not defending the free world. I've just funded their company in a tiny way by buying some. Some of their stock. And, you know, when it gives me the return that I deserve, which hopefully is money, is profit, uh, I say goodbye. It's just another asset. And people say, oh, bitcoin, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. 2 million, 10 million, 50 million. It's just another asset. Oh, gold, gold. It's God's money. Just another asset. They're all just another asset.

Phil Muscatello:Take control of your investments. Sharesight has you covered. It's Investopedia's number one tracking tool for DIY investors. Get four months free on an annual premium plan@sharesite.com sharesforbeginners. General Dynamics. Why General Dynamics? Tell us a little bit about what they do and what made them attractive to you.

Clem Chambers: They make things go bang, and they're cheap, and people are going to want more things that go bang, aren't they? I mean, keep it simple. Keep it dead simple. If you look at all the American stocks generally, if they're any half decent, they're four times sales. I think General Dynamics is one and a half times sales. I mean, you'd think it's English. It's that low. I mean, like, it's only been a company that's been going forever. It only makes the American battle tank. There's only going to be somewhat of a demand for things that go bang, and it's down today, so why wouldn't you buy a little more of it? Yeah. So, you know, it's just common sense thinking. But what I didn't do was I didn't snap off a quarter of all my net wealth and buy General Dynamics. I took, I don't know, half a point two percent of my portfolio and went, oh, I'll have a chunk of that, thank you very much. If it went bust tomorrow, I'd go, oh, I'm there. Yeah. Off we go to dinner. I would be. Took me 10 years to save all that money. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Yeah. So the important thing is how you invest, how you think, and. And my Clem Chambers Alpha channel is all about how you think. Yeah. I throw out all these names and all these things, and I seem to have had a magic touch. I'm bound to make a blunder very soon. I'VE been doing much, much too well in the last six months. I look like Nostradamus, but I'm not. Yeah, but the point is, I'm trying to teach people how to think. It's about how you think about it, not the stocks. If someone comes up to you and says, there's this stock, uh, it's the Clem plc, okay? It's brilliant. It's going to go to the moon. So you go, oh, really? Oh, my next door neighbor's got a lamb. I'll buy some of that. And up it goes fivefold. And you go, oh, great. I put 10 in. I got 50 grand. Oh, am I clever. Uh, I've got a neighbor. Maybe. Maybe I'm clever for having a neighbor. You haven't learned anything. You've not learned anything. You can't do it again. Yeah, your neighbor comes along and says, oh, you know, you want to sell Clem, uh, ink now. And you. So you sell it, take your profit, and you go, that's great. And it quadruples. Well, you know, whose fault is that? His. Yours. A, you've not learned what to do. B, you've not found out how to pick another one. C, you don't know what you're doing, so. And if you lose all your money, it's going to be your neighbor's fault. You never talk to them again. And if you make money, you might think you're smart, but you're not. So there's absolutely nothing, no benefit in. In tips. And what's worse is there's a whole battalion of people that will tip you stuff because they want to sell it to you. Yeah, you want to buy. Kliman Gives a great company. By the way, I seem to have some on me here. Would you like these? You could buy them off me. Come on, you want them? They're going to go up, they're going to go to the moon. Oh, billions and trillions. Yeah, I got some even more if you want some more. See ya. Uh, oh, by the way, I'm driving off in my Lambo. I don't actually live next door, so, you know, it's a. Yeah, no, learn how to do it yourself. It's not difficult. Read

00:15:00

Clem Chambers: five books. One of them might. But, you know, read a few basic classic books and you'll be great. You'll be fine. Watch shows like this, which is about the basics of it. I mean, I always say to people, look, would you play Roger Federer at Tennis for money? Now, obviously, if you wanted a game of tennis with Federer, you'd just pay him. Right, wouldn't you? But you wouldn't want to bet on it. You wouldn't want to bet on it because you're gonna lose. And the market is full of people like me and who aren't nice, who make out off you, whether it's by providing services or whether it's providing the opportunity to gamble on a risky thing. Yeah. The casino end and people are. Novices are easily lured down to the casino in. Because it's more fun. Yeah. It's got bright lights and they go flashy flash. Whereas the really good stuff is as dull as ditch water. Why would I buy that? Absolutely. I've heard somebody say to me once, this is not that long ago. Why would I buy that? I want to make 100% a year. Oh, yeah, uh, I'm, um. Sure you do. Uh, I guarantee you'll lose 100% a year.

Clem Chambers: Yeah. There was a story came from somewhere. You know, Uncle Joe, he made millions from the stock market. Oh, what did he buy? Oh, he didn't buy anything. He just told other people what to buy.

Clem Chambers: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And the other one, of course, is if you want to make a small fortune in the stock market, start with a large one.

Phil Muscatello:Yeah, There's a lot of those aphorisms, isn't there? But, Clem, copper. How are you investing in copper? Are you looking at miners in physical ETFs? I mean, how are you personally looking. Looking at gaining exposure to copper that you think is. And why copper?

Clem Chambers: It's difficult. It really is difficult. There's no. In my book, I mean, there are ETFs, but they're like minor ETFs with miners in. And I'm not a big fan of ETFs that are full of miners, because you look at the list and you go, oh, they've got that one. That one. M. You've got to be kidding me. Oh, one that does cables. What's that doing in there? So when you look at an etf, always look at what they've got in it. And if I wanted a copper etf, I'd want them to say a warehouse full of copper. And there ain't one of them. Because copper is like big lumps of lumps. And, you know, there's no custodian that says, yeah, I've got a warehouse big enough for a, you know, 50,000 tons of that. Because obviously it's not like.

Phil Muscatello: It's not like those vaults in London full of physical gold, is it?

Clem Chambers: Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's why I had all my gold in, in a, in a physical vault in Zurich. And you know, that's where, where I keep my silver or what? Where I kept my silver and I have some of my platinum and palladium there. Well in fact I have all my physical platinum plate in there. But yeah, vaults for precious metals. When it's by the ounce it works but it appears and someone say to me, oh, don't you know about the Swahili ETF Copper ETF that's over there. I haven't found one that I like. So what I've done is I've bought big, and I mean big. The biggest copper mines that I can find but also the on the cheap side. And for me that's Anglo American because they're merging with TEC which is the big Canadian copper mine. Anglo American basically they both said we need to be the biggest copper game in town, let's merge because you know really we've got to, let's do that. Even if I'm um, means I might get fired, let's just merge, be really, really big. And that's what they've done. So I like that. There's one called Antofana gusta which is chile chili copper. That's quite expensive. I'm not a fan of it really but I bought it because I was having difficulty finding the right shape of exposure and it's quite difficult. And the other one is, is Freeport McMor America. And as soon as I bought them, their big mine flooded. But anyway it's still going up a load. But you know that's the problem with miners. They are accident prone and you know, that's why just go for the biggest, bestest, dullest of any miners if you're going to go miners. And the other one that I picked up on is Glencore. Now Glencore, everybody hates Glencore. I really hate Glencore. But they are up to their ears in strategic minerals. I mean they are the most strategic mineral guys. So you know, if you want a little bit of anti, anti gravitorium they'll be mining that. So they have all the, all the weird and wacky stuff that I love because I'm actually in the rare earth game in my part time job actually my full time job is rare earth IP out of universities in Britain. But they, Glencore are the. Not only everybody hates Glencore which is, I understand that it's historical but they are up to their ears massive, massive business in copper and other strategic metals and minerals which is just as good A copper. As long as they're strategic, as long as they're weird, as long as you can't pronounce them, they are good metals to be. Because that's kind of down the pike. First it was gold, then it was silver maybe out, maybe that's gone platinum and palladium. Still a bit more of that in that copper. Massive upside. Anything that, that ends in IUM that you can't pronounce that you can get a good cheap position in and it's very, very difficult, but Glencore is one of them. And then finally, although not so finally anymore, oil, I may be saying in about two years oil will go up, uh, significantly and then cause bohang yesterday and today, up they went.

00:20:00

Clem Chambers: But you know, oil is going to be $300 a barrel at some point before the end of the decade. So oil is the final one on that sort of, you know, that showtime at 6 o' clock we have gold and silver. At 8 we have platinum, palladium, M. At 9 we have copper. At 11 we have oil. I don't know what's at midnight, but you know, you never know. I'll probably work some point.

Clem Chambers: Why do you think oil is going to be $300?

Clem Chambers: Why? Because there's not going to be enough energy in the whole world. There's just going to be. They're just going to be using it all. It's not to say there's not a lot of it, but they're going to be using it all. And electricity is the big bottleneck. Yeah, it's a massive, massive bottleneck because you know, all these A.I. ah, service centers. I mean if you look at this conflict in Iran, right? So America's gone over there, they've decapitated the government, they shut down all the radars. I guess if you launch your missiles pro 10 minutes later, all hell rains down on you. Yeah, because they've got the intelligence, artificial intelligence is all part of that arc. Yeah, all part of that spectrum. And if you've got more than the other guy, the other guy's toast. It's just that simple really. So China and America are going to go hell for leather for AI. And AI is pure energy. Energy in hot air, out. And AI I mean literally, you know, you put, you throw up all these raw materials and iron and you put them in a big shed. You probably have to bury the shed now, but you know, so, so in a buried shed you've got to put, you know, megawatts in gigawatts in that shed. And then you You've got to somehow blow out the hot air that it generates because all those computers just get hot. As you probably touch a computer now, you imagine that times a million in a shed. Yeah. And then out comes a little glass fiber out the back end and there's your AI. The little cable comes out the back with all the good stuff and you know, a, uh, gigawatt of hot air. I'll tell you, if anybody finds out what to do with that hot air that they will make themselves a multi billionaire. I mean, you know, one could grow weed, of course, but that's not legal. I mean the, the solution to that back in the day in nuclear power station would be to grow snails. In France, the French, um, EDF had snail farms and eel farms. Seems to put a load of baby eels in a big pond. The water's hot, they grow fast. But, uh, you know, that hot air, I suppose you could run, you know, all sorts of farming, greenhouse style farming with all that hot air because it's going to be gigawatts of it. It's going to blow it out into the atmosphere. But anyway, not enough electricity. Well, what you're going to do with electric cars then. You're gonna, gonna take the electricity and give it to cars. You don't think so? No, they're going to say, yes, electric cars, what a great idea that was. Yes. Now you need to go back to petrol and diesel. They're not so bad after all. Yes, yes. None of these electric cars. Oh, you know what that lithium, um, bad for the environment. Oh no, everyone's going to die if you use lithium. Oh no, battery is bad, bad. Now what you need is internal combustion engine. We've got great ones, we just come up with new ones. Yes, yes, yes. We need electricity for other things. Yeah. And of course oil is very flexible. So if you actually have to have backup, you know, oil is pretty much the most flexible of energy you can ship it about. It's dirt cheap, you know, it's a liquid. So it will be one of the. Well, it is a core energy supply, but there's not going to be enough energy. They're building nuclear power. I mean, if I went around three years ago and said we need to build lots of nuclear power, you know, the mobs would have come out with their pitchforks and I would have been strung up. That's nuclear power. That's Satan. That will kill your children. It's the worst thing. Three Mile Island, China Syndrome, Chernobyl. No, we don't want any of that. And all of a sudden say, oh, yeah, yeah, we like that. It's good read in the media. Why, uh, nuclear power is good. It's not propaganda, surely. No, no. Why is nuclear power all of a sudden in fashion? Because they need it. Because they're going to boil the oceans with AI. They have to boil the oceans with AI. There's no second place. And do you want China to be first place? I've got nothing against the Chinese, but I don't really want them ruling the world. Not yet anyway. Not until they kind of, you know, get a little bit more democratic, perhaps.

Clem Chambers: So how are you gaining exposure to oil, Clem?

Clem Chambers: We just buy the oil companies, they pay fat dividends. They're sat there. I mean, uh, I picked up a load of Equinor, which is Norwegian, because I thought if these muppets in the Middle east, you know, mess things up and after all, a lot of them are quite, well, you know, suited to Mecca, messing everything up and hurting, uh, their own peoples and hurting others as well, and disrupting their own, you know, gravy train. I want a provider that doesn't have any oil exposure out there. Well, that's equinoil, that's Norwegian oil. So I've got some of that, you know, can't really go wrong with Shell, bp, well, they're the unpopular company in the pack, so I've got some of that. And they pay fat dividends, uh, off the top of my head. 2, 3, 4%, some of them. So you can just sit there and wait and get paid to wait. 4%. And, you know, I mean, it depends, right? If you don't believe that AI is a

00:25:00

Clem Chambers: thing, then, you know, there'll just be old companies paying 4%. But if they are going to boil the oceans, and I'm sure they are, I mean, look at the price of uranium. It's gone up a bit.

Clem Chambers: Yeah, I was, I was going to. I was going to bring up uranium because you did mention nuclear. Clem, are you looking at uranium at all?

Clem Chambers: Yes. No and maybe. So, yes, I have some uranium. Not literally, no. I don't have any uranium in the void anywhere, but I do have some uranium. I think I have a uranium stock, but I have. See, this is my idea. If you go, right, nuclear power goes uranium, where can I buy uranium? All It's a uranium stock. Up it goes. Right. Probably before you pay any attention. But what about things that actually are going to do uranium? So imagine this. Phil, I want you to build me a nuclear power station. You're going to Go, ah, how much money is that? Oh, billions and billions. You go, but I don't know what to do. Oh, do you know what it does? Yeah, there's like four companies in the world that still do it and three of them are owned by countries. Oh, okay. Anybody else? Well, there's the people that manage them and there's the people that actually kind of help build them. Okay, well they're going to be in demand, aren't they? I'll think I'll buy that stock. And there's one in the US that I did buy which is called Fluoro, which is spelled like flour, but the UNO are flipped around and, and they'll fix your power station for you or they'll make it for you, they'll lock it down for you, they'll do anything like that for nuclear power stations. And in fact they actually funded a mini nuclear power station making startup and they just sold it for like 2, 2 billion or 3 billion or something like that because they were basically investing in a company that would ask them to build the blooming thing once they had sold it to somebody, as you would imagine. And it's, you know, it's as cheap as chips in comparison to a lot of American companies. And of course I'm going to go, oh, I don't want uranium, I want some little company that's invented anti gravity. That's what I'm going to invest in. And I go, oh, uh, I want to invest in the company. One of only four that can build it or one of the only a small number that can build it that's not very expensive because everyone goes, they're boring, they just build plants, they just build big factories. Nobody wants. Oh, hold on a minute. But anyway, they build nuclear stuff and nobody, oh, hold on a minute, you know that, that it's second order thing. If you're going to play this game, just buy an ETF. I'm sure there's crazy uranium ETFs. I would, I would look at them and go, what's that got to do with Microsoft? Well, what's that got to do with uranium? I mean I haven't looked at any uranium etf, so I might be doing them slander. But if you're going to go that route, look at what's in the etf. And if you go, oh yeah, oh, ah, you can also do something like company A, company B. Oh, company C. I know, I've heard of them, I'll look them up on the interwebs. Oh, I rather like that. Are they Expensive? No, they're cheap. I'll have some of that. So you can go to an ETF and go down everything I've got in there and pick out the good ones or the ones that you like. So that's quite a good way at cheating because they've done the due diligence, they've got all the, you know, 23 year olds out of Harvard running around trying to be important, doing all the work and then they've, they publish what they got in there. So you can, you know, go straight to the good stuff and go, what's that? I don't like that. Or no, them, no, I don't want them. And pick out one or two good ones or just one, you know, so, so that is one way to go. But very, very, very, very early on, uranium. And you know, this is just a smorgasbord of opportunities out there because AI just turned everything upside down and, you know, the market's slow to adapt. Could you imagine all the institutions out there with their portfolios and they don't go, oh, um, blimey, everything's changed, let's change our portfolio. They go, hold on a minute, let's have a long focused look. So you've got time, you've got plenty of time. Are you confused about how to invest? LifeSherpa can ease the burden of having to decide for yourself. Head to lifesherpa.com to find out more. Lifesherpa, Australia's most affordable online financial advice

Clem Chambers: M that's interesting that you say, have a look at an ETF or a portfolio within an ETF to find companies for yourself to go in, because I actually haven't even thought about that before, that you're working off the back of all that due diligence that someone else has done and you can use that for your own benefit.

Clem Chambers: I'm not on this show for nothing, you know.

Clem Chambers: Clem, crypto, what's going on there? Do you have any position in crypto? Uh, I think, you know, some people are saying it's got a bit to do with AI because it's the same kind of data processing power that's required to mine for Bitcoin. But is there any Nexus there? What are you seeing in this space?

Clem Chambers: Well, I've got to say that I've been doing crypto investing since 2016. I had a best selling book in 2018. I think it was number one in, in books about crypto. Right now I got none. Well, you know, that's not strictly true. If I, if I go through all My hardware and open all my

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Clem Chambers: silly wallets and I go to all the silly places I've been. I've probably got a few tens of grand just floating about. Oh, look, I didn't know I had that. Oh, wow. I got an airdrop from blah blah blah. Oh, yeah. But no material position, okay? And that's how I like it. And I've got stable coins, funny enough, but that's because, you know, just in case. And they are as good as dollars. And you can buy watches from the Ukraine with stable coins and stuff like that. But no position as far as investment goes. No bitcoin, that I would consider to be material. I've got some satoshis hanging about, for example, and I've got a ton of ordinals because I thought they were good and I thought they might go through the roof and never did. But, uh, I do not have bitcoins. The biggest bitcoins I've got are on my socks, okay? So, no, I'm out. I've been out for about a year. And every now and again I find I've got some and I sell it. And you know, I do not want anything to do with crypto. Right now it's going down, and it's probably going down to 30,000. Someone said, oh, crypto's in a, in a bear market. Now, crypto's been in a bear market since 120,000 on Bitcoin. And anybody doesn't understand what a bear market really is is in deep trouble. Now, anybody you hear that says the price has fallen 25, it's now a bear market, Absolutely does not have a clue what they're talking about. So anybody that says that, you could write off anything they say, right? Because this is what a bear market is. It's a market that is going down, down, down, down, down. Oh, down, down, down, down, oh, down, down, down, down. The moment it stops going up, uh, up, uh, up, uh, up, uh, up, uh, which is a bull market, up, uh, up, up, up, uh, and starts to go down, down, down, down. It's in a bear market. It could be a short bear market, it could be a very long bear market. But anything that consistently trends down is a bear market. Nothing to do with percentages. It's been in a bear market since 120,000 and it's now 60ish, you know, 60 one day, 69, another. It will probably go to 30. And if it does, it will go on to 40. High probability it will hit 30. Reasonably decent probability it might go lower. I probably Won't now when it hits 30, I wouldn't buy it. I would sit there and wait for it to go sideways, sideways, sideways. Oh, there's hardening. Oh, it's going to go up now. Oh, it didn't. Oh. Oh, no, it's all over for bitcoin or. Oh, it is. Oh, uh, who knows where that's going to go? The halvening that drives the doubling of the peak of every bitcoin cycle. And the base is about double the previous base. So the Last base was 15, this will be 30. And the last base is actually quite a bit lower. But you can't really call the bottom like that because when it falls, everybody panics horribly and runs away. And there's so much garbage in the crypto world of institutions now. It's not like the tattooed brethren who go, I'm holding to the end of the world. I'll be the last man standing. It's now it's a load of fidelities and people like that. And they've got no testicular fortitude, none. So, you know, they're liable to panic when it gets under 40,000, you know, and, um, it could easily overshoot. But my feeling is 50 almost for sure. 40 really highly probability. 30, it's probably going to happen under 30. I don't care. I really don't care. I really don't care. It's just got too putrid for my liking. Now, in the early days, before the institutions got in, which is the added level of putridness. Yeah, it was much more clear, much more fun, much easier to make a case. But now it's a blooming heavy assets. It's just another asset. It's very heavy. It's surrounded by flim flam artists, scammers, grifters, you know, up to your neck in grifters. Uh, and it's not secure. It's just not secure. I mean, I literally cannot hold a position that would be material to me without me being at risk personally as well as, as, you know, operationally. So, you know, I can't play in that, in that pond. Now, if it was a matter of a few tens of thousands, then, you know, okay, but, you know, it's not worth my while. Now what will happen. I believe what will happen is there'll be a new breed of tokens come along with a new level of use cases, and it will probably be agentic AI. And it already happened, actually. But all the agentic AI tokens, uh, I say all. Maybe there's a few. I don't know of that are not. The following were scams. Yeah. Which is typical.

Clem Chambers: Are, uh, these the tokens you're talking about? That where you're buying use cases of AI and paying for them with a digital token. Is that the sort of thing you're talking about?

Clem Chambers: For example, your agent might go out to Phil's Watches and say, claire wants to buy that watch on your website. You, uh, send it to him, will you? And, oh, by the way, let me just check you out. Oh, yeah, I like you. Yeah, yeah. Here's the money in crypto in our token, and he'll. And you can cash it in over our exchange over there. And, and you know, the agents will be transacting in

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Clem Chambers: their own cryptos or new cryptos or, or especially programmable cryptos or all that good stuff. And that is one example of what, what will happen. But all you have to do, if you want to play that gambling game, watch out for agentic tokens with real teams. Not aardvark1 and bad boy X. But you know, Joe Blow from this university with this degree, do your due diligence on the teams and on the token. Make sure it's real. Get it early, not too early. Not when you're going to get scammed by somebody pumping it in punk fun. Yeah, and maybe those things will go berserk because when they start happening, it will be the bottom of the crypto winter. You see, when a market does that, don't never buy it. When it does that, start thinking about it. If it goes down, it goes up. Still don't buy. Let it do that and then let it do that and then buy, you know, buy the W or buy a very long basing. But don't buy that bit. I mean, someone's saying that to me about what do you think of this stock? I said, what's going down, isn't it? He said, well, yeah, but it's cheap. I said, but it's going down, isn't it? Well, yeah. What? It's going down, isn't it? Yeah, well, it's going down, isn't it? I suppose so. Say, well, stop. Think about it when it's not going down anymore and crypto's going down.

Clem Chambers: Catch a falling knife, put it in your pocket.

Clem Chambers: Well, the way to catch a falling knife, apart from the fact you don't want to catch it in your boot, is you want to let it fall, hit the floor and go. And when it stopped going, then you can pick it up. Yeah, but let it. Let the falling knife hit the floor and lie flat and still and leave it for a bit and then pick it up. That's absolutely the way to do it. I mean, it's a very. I used to trade falling knives. That used to be my bread and butter, because no one else dares do it. And, you know, if you really, really, really do know what you're doing and you got the constitution for it, you can do that. And I'll tell you what, the reason I stopped was that I basically burnt my stomach lining off. And, you know, it's not good for your health, playing those sort of city games. Yeah. And, you know, I used to make a lot of money out of it and in the end I went, I don't need this. I make more money by being boring than I do out, uh, of this. All right, I make a lot out of this, but I just don't need the extra, you know, forget that. And, you know, anybody that wants to pay for an education on how to do it can, but then after they've done it for two or three or four years, they'll find out that, you know, that they're eating, you know, stomach settlers all day. You don't want to go there. It's not good for you.

Clem Chambers: So the ftse, the London Stock Exchange, why is Wall street looking at it with interest and what's the, the differences in valuations across the pond?

Clem Chambers: Well, you know, the UK market has been dead as a duck for best part of a generation. Yeah, well, not quite, because I suppose it did manage 25 years as being dead as a duck, let's call it 25 years. But it's on its way now and it's going to go up a long way in my book. And the reason for it is, let's just say I held a good company in the us, a farmer. A farmer company, Pfizer. And I'm going, ah, uh, dollar's going to go down 20 the next two years, and that means my dollars are going to go down 20. So Pfizer goes up 5. I'm going to lose 15 in purchasing power. So why don't I just buy one of these cheap British. Well, not they're international, but they're listed in Britain. I mean, it's their half price for a fight for a Pfizer. So I can snap a bit of my Pfizer off and go buy AstraZeneca or GSK or whatever, and I can hedge my currency. Now, you're seeing that all over the world. Oh, the emerging markets are going ballistic. Yeah, well, that's because American stockholders, institutional stockholders, are hedging their dollar risk by buying equivalent stocks that uh, are not denominated in dollars. Yeah, everyone's going, oh, I've got such great stock market. Yay, yay. My stocks are going up. I'm so clever. That's because Americans are going, yeah, yeah, our dollar's going down. Can I have some of that? Can I have some of that? Rupee dominated pharmaceutical company or whatever. And that's driving it. And that's what's driving the footsie. The other thing is stocks are so cheap in the uk. I was looking at one today and I didn't buy any, but I almost did. 5 PE, 11% dividend. And they just brought, had their numbers come out and they went down 11% and they're profitable. And they're an old, old, old name. It's a newspaper group. But I mean they tried very hard to get into digital, but nonetheless, you know, 11% and they've been put on the block, as doomed as being a newspaper for the best part of 20 years now. And here they still are making whatever it is, you know, half time sales of a big sales number. So there's just so much value, so much value. When you look at something like Johnson and Matthew, which is a platinum company, does platinum, which has gone through the roof, which might not be good for it if they have to pay more high prices for platinum, but nonetheless, massive, massive. And they're so undervalued. Honeywell came in and bought a small, uh, like 10% of their business for like 30% of their value. I, uh, 30% of the whole company's value. They bought 10% of their sales, 10%

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Clem Chambers: of profits. And I thought, you know, well, a, Honeywell, pretty smart, B, this company's pretty cheap and it's going to get harvested, it's going to get strip mined. And the UK stock market is getting strip mined. Oh, hello, cheap British company. Yes, we speak your language or we speak your language. We'd like to buy you. Oh, for a nice markup. M of say 30%. You fine with that? Oh, yeah, thanks. Yeah. Uh, you're worth four times as much to us in America. Thank you. And that's happening all the time. And that obviously pushes prices up. So there you go.

Clem Chambers: So this dynamic that you're describing with the currency, that's because of the falling value of the US Dollar, isn't it? And you think that's one of the main reasons, is it that people are looking at Wall street, street investors are looking at overseas for more investments.

Clem Chambers: It's not a matter of a prediction. They've been told. Trump has told them. Yeah. That interest rates are coming down and if the Fed doesn't lower them, he'll sue the Fed chairman for criminal charges. Oh, and the new one has signed up for that job. I wonder what he's going to do then. So they are going to lower interest rates come what may, and that's going to weaken the dollar come what may. And it's not a. Or it's a new. It's. Nobody knew that bang. It's going to be. Well, everybody knows that now. You know, if you're an institution, you don't wait for things to happen. You go, well, we must adjust. Let's adjust. So they're adjusting. So let's take 1% and buy stuff in Britain. Up goes the stock market in Britain, 10%. You know, the liquidity, which is all that drives markets in the end is how is the money flow, the liquidity of the American stock market. I mean, Nvidia is worth the same as the whole of the British stock market. Okay. One company. So, you know, when, when, if you snap 1% off of Nvidia off and you put it into the British stock market, it goes up 10 or 15%. But, you know, you don't. It's across the board. It's across the board.

Clem Chambers: It's the weight of money, isn't it?

Clem Chambers: Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. That's really all it is, wherever is. And that's what you saw tonight. It was probably in America going, yeah, people are a little bit uncomfortable about this war thing. You know, pull the lever. Oh, thank you very much for the money. We'll put that on a carry trade. Boom. Up goes assets.

Clem Chambers: It's the way to money. Uh, it's a great way to finish off this podcast episode. Clem, thank you very much. It's always exhilarating talking with you, Clem. Thank you very much for joining me.

Clem Chambers: Good to be on, Phil. See you again soon. Thanks for listening to Shares for Beginners. You can find more@sharesforbeginners.com if you enjoy listening, please take a moment to rate or review in your podcast player or tell a friend who might want to learn more about investing for their future.

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